Gold Analysis For First Semester of 2012

1) First step, we should look to monthly price chart.

 

2) Put the Bullinger Bands indicator to see next month price trend

3) Drag horizontal line to see the exact price of up-line Bullinger Bands (BB) indicator. And drag another horizontal line to see exact price of mid-line BB indicator.

 

We found that up-line BB shows 1868.97. And mid-line BB pointed at 1419.94. Lowest price for Des 2011 (today 14 Dec 2011) is at 1554.98.

Conclusion
1) Lower Market price is still “FAR” from mid-line BB,
2) Next one month potential price is : the price be higher than 1419.94

4) Now we move to weekly price chart. Put a Linear Regression
line (covers minimum one year period), to see a “CONSTANT” value degree.

5) Put a line with degree in every extention line of linear regression

 

I got 14 degrees for normal growth.
tan(14 degree) = 0.249328003

It means: normally, gold price could rise 24.93% per year in a normal growth of global economic situation

6) The extended area of Linear Regression Lines, is the area of shadow. I use it to see where is NORMAL area, and ABNORMAL area

 

See more detail to the chart, you’ll see that shadow lines cross some curve. See the violet vertical line of 31 July 2011. The price after 31 July was higher than maximum normal price. That’s the area when the price was going ABNORMAL.

There were 2 periods of abnormal events happened, one period was during August 2011 (extreme positive period) and the second was during mid Dec 2011 (extreme negative period)

7) So…where will the area of gold price in the next six month???
There are some steps to follow to make a realistic conclusion:
1) we have to see where will the area of normal price for the   next six month
2) we have to see the possibilities of additional area which caused by past abnormal events which may affect the future.
3) The speed of market recovery
4) New tendencies from 2012 global economic situation

Let start from number 1

 

8) I took 3months period first, to see the area of normal price from 4 Dec 2011 – 18 March 2011.

 

The yellow area is the area of normal price during that period. You may see that normal price for

first week of dec 2011 should be
- lowest is at 1575.65
- highest is at 1842.40

Third week of March 2012
-lowest is at 1728.09
-highest is at 1956.26

9) Now we go to step 2, to see the additional area (abnormal area). See the orange area.

 

Base on mathematic standart, it should be made as a quadratic function curve, and see the total coverage area in an integral equation.

But here, I just make a simple orange picture, so you can imagine the extreme area that we will count as a “factor of change” for the future.

10) give the point of exact price in every important area. It will help you to see how much the different of price that was passed, how long the abnormal period happened, and how much the average of different price.

Gather the price information of
Open : …..
High :…..
Low :…..
Close :….

in every week, during 7 weeks of abnormal event, and then calculate the average price.

I got result average different price was 70.15pips

11) Combine Newton’s Law to understand what happen and what will happen next. Because everything in this universe follow the nature’s law. Law of attraction, law of force, etc.

Remember Newton’s law about the motion, there are some important elments in motion, such
- Force —>> to see how much the force was being used to attack the market in the past abnormal period
- Velocity —>> how much the speed of attack was used in the past abnormal period
- Acceleration—>> how much the acceleration used until it stop (until abnormal period ends)

 

12) Then, count the counter F. Counter F is the the force of recovery. I sign it as -F (read: minus F).

The total value of F was 70.15pips x 7 weeks = 500.5pips

So, the total -F sould be 500.5 pips under the normal prices, but it will be distributed in a 7weeks – 22 weeks period.

The abnormal period was like an ATTACK to the normal market, and it left the SCAR.

If the velocity and acceleration of “SCAR” is fast, it will take 7 weeks to make a total recovery scar of the market. If the velocity of scar is slow, it takes longer, it could be 22 weeks.
I predict that total recovery of the market will be accomplish at April 2012.

 

Next…

see more detail in the orange area under the yellow area, (4 dec 2012). That period is ONE step of the recovery period. If we devide 500.5pips to 7weeks, it would make the price could reach the average 70.15pips lower than minimum normal price. But if the recovery is going not smooth, it can be more than 70.15pips, until 500.5 pips  ”scar recovery duty” accomplished. Just devide some lines with degree as support and resistance lines to find more accurate price level.

More detail information about gold price forecasting?

Contact : brissa_eden@tantradot.com

Consultation Charge US$ 150/hour.